Modeling Impacts of Nutrient Loading, Warming, and Boundary Exchanges on Hypoxia and Metabolism in a Shallow Estuarine Ecosystem

We sought to investigate the impacts of nutrient loading, warming, and open-water boundary exchanges on a shallow estuary through idealized numerical model experiments. performed these simulations using stand-alone implementation Regional Ocean Modeling System-Row-Column AESOP biogeochemical in Chester River estuary, tributary within Chesapeake Bay estuarine complex. found that metabolic rates were elevated creeks relative open waters gross primary production, respiration, net ecosystem metabolism function both water temperature local phytoplankton biomass. Warming 0.75°C 1.25°C led reductions dissolved oxygen concentrations throughout estuary. Reductions (50%) nitrogen phosphorus loading did not substantially alter hypoxic volumes this turbid, nutrient-rich but warming increased by 20%–30%. Alterations represent improved adjacent mainstem more substantial relief hypoxia than (~50% hypoxia). These reveal complex interplay watershed inputs horizontal exchange small including finding future reduction effects will be translated some estuaries like River.